This has been an interesting week for government, after a turbulent nine months since the original Brexit date. Since the vote to leave we have seen various ups and downs in the property market, but the last few months have seen a definite shift in the way surveyors and lenders are looking at the market. What they expect to happen over the coming months and years is having an effect on lending decisions.
We can split this into three categories; how surveyors are viewing properties, how lenders are interpreting this, and how their own view on risk is changing.
How are surveyors changing their valuations?
The biggest issue we are finding, surprisingly, is the commentary around demand for property. This can create a number of issues. The demand for resale is a major consideration for a lender, as they will always be concerned with how quickly they can dispose of the asset if they ever have to repossess it. Pre-Brexit we would expect to see 3-6 months as a standard sale period, but we are increasingly seeing this move to 6-9 months. This means that the standard ‘restricted sale period’ of 6 months may have a lower value, and the lender may use this rather than the open market value. We have seen a couple of properties with a likely resale period of over 12 months and this falls outside of many lender’s criteria.
As investors, you need to be mindful of this when looking for property. What affect has the uncertainty had on your area, as this is very location dependant? There are plenty of resources available to check the demand, so use this to do as much research as you can and give this to your surveyor.
The other part to demand is for lettings, so how likely is it that you will be able to let your property quickly once you have bought it. We used to be able to value a vacant property on the assumption that demand would be sufficient and the surveyor would use market rent. This is changing, mainly for commercial property, as surveyors become more cautious and letting retail units particularly becomes more challenging. Businesses on the high street are finding life tough with current business rates and an increasing preference for online shopping. We are seeing a trend towards more services in local areas, but there are often planning restrictions.
We need to be mindful of local conditions when thinking about when to value a property, and this again comes down to research and due diligence. We have one opportunity for a valuation with each lender, it is so important to get it right first time.
How are lenders changing their view on this?
Lenders will always look at a case on a worst-case scenario basis – their main concern is risk! When you are using commercial or specialist lending they are far more focused on the property than they are the client, so it’s no surprise that we are seeing a bigger change in the way specialist lenders are looking at property than the high street. Where the demand is limited for a property (the resale or letting period is long) then there is a bigger risk to the lender and they may well want to reduce this risk. The most frequent restriction is on the loan to value, but we have had part of the loan moved to capital repayment and cases declined.
What has changed more recently is an overall reduction in risk from lenders. It is moving from a case-by-case basis to a broader criteria change.
Over the last few months we have had a number of lenders increase their minimum loan, and restrict their maximum lending on single assets. History tells us that when there is a house price adjustment then it is the top and bottom of the market that fall first – this is generally low value properties, often flats, and large detached houses in affluent areas. Putting a restriction on these type of properties means that the lender is less exposed should this happen.
We are also seeing a more conservative view on refurbishment projects. Not only are valuers being more cautious on what we call the residual value (the lowest price the property will fall to when you start the rip out) which can affect the overall lending, but we are also seeing the maximum day one loan reduce slightly. The lender wants the investor to put in that little bit more to reduce their risk.
Despite all this, the market is remaining buoyant and there are so many deals out there. I think that investors need to factor in these changes when looking at their purchase price, refurbishment costs and end value, as it will affect them. Profit is key, and you have to factor the finance costs in when calculating your day one offer.
In addition, uncertainty in the market is unlikely to go away any time soon so the demand for rental is likely to stay high. The long term rental market is what investors should be focusing on, so if that means adjusting short term profit then maybe that’s another shift that needs to happen to help keep the demand strong!